AITwelve-month purchase intent in the UAE and Saudi Arabia more than halved after the 2026 conflict, and most buyers say they have pushed their purchase beyond the next 12 months. Four in five are also open to switching brands. For distributors and dealers, 2026-27 is a contest for the buyer who is still deciding and the owner who has already bought.
of UAE buyers plan to buy a car in the next 12 months, down from 82%. In Saudi Arabia intent fell from 79% to 21%.
Deloitte, 2026of UAE buyers (79% in Saudi Arabia) are open to switching brands, the highest openness Deloitte measured in EMEA.
Deloitte, 2026new vehicles sold in Saudi Arabia in 2025, up 2.8%. UAE sales were flat at 308,495.
OICA, 2026growth in Egypt’s new-vehicle sales in 2025, to 163,757 units.
OICA, 2026In brief
The four things to know before you plan.
- Saudi Arabia sold 827,544 new vehicles in 2025 (+2.8%), the UAE 308,495 (+0.7%) and Egypt 163,757 (+69.1%), according to OICA.
- Deloitte’s 2026 study found 12-month purchase intent fell from 82% to 28% in the UAE and from 79% to 21% in Saudi Arabia after the 2026 conflict; only around 7% of buyers left the market.
- 40% of buyers say they would buy now with the right offer: extended warranties, zero-interest finance and comprehensive insurance (Deloitte).
- Saudi manufacturing arrives in 2026-27: Hyundai’s first vehicle by Q4 2026, Ceer sales from early 2027 and Lucid’s 2027 production ramp.
The market, country by country
| Market | 2025 new-vehicle sales | Change on 2024 | What to watch in 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 827,544 | +2.8% | Hyundai plant in King Abdullah Economic City (first vehicle by Q4 2026); Ceer on sale early 2027; Lucid 2027 ramp; EVIQ fast-charging build-out |
| United Arab Emirates | 308,495 | +0.7% | Nearly half of Middle East EV sales in 2025; UAEV per-kWh public charging; Chinese brands at 10 to 15% of new-car sales (H1 2025) |
| Egypt | 163,757 | +69.1% | Automotive Industry Development Program (target 100,000 vehicles a year); imports growing faster than local assembly |
Source: OICA, sales of new vehicles, all types (April 2026). Qatar is not reported separately by OICA.
Six shifts to plan for
What is changing in the market, with the evidence for each shift.
3.1Demand is deferred
Deloitte’s 2026 study found purchase intent more than halved in both markets, while only around 7% of buyers left the market entirely. Forty per cent say they would buy today with the right offer, and the levers they name are extended warranties, zero-interest finance and comprehensive insurance. Lead nurturing and bundled finance offers are the main sales tools for the next 12 months.
3.2Loyalty is weak and Chinese brands are gaining
Around four in five buyers in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are open to switching. Chinese brands took 10 to 15% of UAE new-car sales and 12% in Saudi Arabia in the first half of 2025 (AutoData, reported by AGBI). Owner retention and conquest programmes now decide market share.
3.3Aftersales decides retention
Authorized dealers handle about 70% of new-vehicle service, and that share falls away steeply as vehicles age (Deloitte). Service reminders, prepaid service plans and connected-car data, all tied to the customer record, keep owners coming back after the warranty ends.
3.4EV ownership runs through apps
The UAE accounted for nearly half of the Middle East’s EV sales in 2025 (IEA, reported by Khaleej Times). UAEV bills public charging per kWh, and Saudi Arabia’s EVIQ is building towards more than 5,000 fast chargers by 2030. Charging, payment and vehicle data now belong in the same profile as the sale.
3.5New local manufacturers start from scratch
Hyundai’s plant in King Abdullah Economic City targets its first vehicle by the fourth quarter of 2026, Ceer plans to start sales in early 2027 and Lucid is preparing a 2027 production ramp in Saudi Arabia. Each needs dealer, direct, fleet and service journeys designed from day one.
3.6Egypt’s rebound runs on imports
Egypt’s new-vehicle sales rose 69.1% in 2025 (OICA), and imported vehicles grew faster than locally assembled ones (AMIC data, reported by EnterpriseAM). The government’s Automotive Industry Development Program targets 100,000 vehicles a year. Distributors need lead, finance and delivery journeys they can set up quickly.
Three ways 2027 could go
One base case from published forecasts, and what to do if it runs slower or faster.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz starts to reopen in March 2027, with shipping broadly back to normal by October 2027, and projects strong 2027 growth after a 2026 contraction (Saudi Arabia +7.9%, UAE +7.7%).
Protect the owner base: service retention, warranty extensions and finance renewals carry dealer profit while new-car demand stays deferred.
Be ready to convert the backlog of deferred buyers: re-scored leads, stock visibility and finance pre-approvals ready to send.
Dates to watch
- Q4 2026First vehicle from Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Middle East, King Abdullah Economic City.
- Early 2027Ceer starts sales from a plant built for 240,000 vehicles a year.
- 2027Lucid’s production ramp at its Saudi plant, designed to scale to 150,000 EVs a year.
- By 2030EVIQ’s target of more than 5,000 fast chargers in Saudi Arabia and UAEV’s 1,000-charger network.
Where to start
Where Arcsen would start, and the page that explains each one.
Lead to delivery on one record
Sales Cloud and Automotive Cloud for test drives, quotes with finance and insurance, allocation and delivery.
Salesforce Industries →Owner retention and service
Service Cloud for service reminders, warranty and parts cases and prepaid plans, so owners return after the warranty.
Service Cloud →One owner profile
Data 360 joins sales, service, finance, app and charging data for trade-in and model-launch journeys.
Marketing Cloud & Data 360 →Agents for showroom and service desk
Agentforce answers availability, booking and service questions in Arabic and English, and hands over to a person with full context.
Agentforce →Priorities for the next 12 months
- Re-score open leads and re-contact deferred buyers with warranty, finance and insurance bundles.
- Build owner-retention journeys from service history, warranty end dates and trade-in windows.
- Join app, charging and connected-car data to the owner record before your next EV launch.
- Run dealer and distributor reporting on one pipeline, so allocation follows demand.
- Put an AI agent on routine booking and status questions, with a human handover.
- 16Pages
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Take the outlook into your planning meeting.
The same research as this page, designed as 16 landscape pages with charts, a 2026-27 timeline and a priorities checklist. Free to download and share with your team.
Questions leaders ask
How many new cars were sold in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2025?
OICA reports 827,544 new vehicles sold in Saudi Arabia in 2025, up 2.8% on 2024, and 308,495 in the UAE, up 0.7%. Egypt grew fastest in the region, up 69.1% to 163,757 units.
Why did car purchase intent fall in the Gulf in 2026?
Deloitte’s 2026 Middle East Automotive Consumer Study found 12-month purchase intent more than halved in the UAE and Saudi Arabia after the 2026 conflict. Most buyers pushed their purchase beyond the next 12 months, and only around 7% left the market.
What will bring deferred car buyers back?
In Deloitte’s 2026 study, 40% of buyers said they would buy now with the right offer. The levers they named were extended warranties, zero-interest finance and comprehensive insurance.
How big is the EV market in the UAE?
The UAE accounted for nearly half of all electric vehicle sales in the Middle East in 2025, according to the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026 as reported by Khaleej Times. Public charging through UAEV is billed per kWh.
When do the new Saudi car plants start production?
Hyundai’s plant in King Abdullah Economic City targets its first vehicle by the fourth quarter of 2026, Ceer plans to go on sale in early 2027, and Lucid is preparing a 2027 production ramp in Saudi Arabia.
Other outlooks for 2026-27
Eight more sectors, researched and sourced the same way.
Financial services outlook
Slower bank growth and tighter funding, open banking licensed in Saudi Arabia, real-time payments and fintech competition.
Read the outlook →Insurance outlook
Premiums growing faster than profits, risk-based capital from January 2027, consolidation and rising health costs.
Read the outlook →Travel and transportation outlook
Recovery after the 2026 disruption, Saudi domestic travel, new airlines and rail, biometrics and AI.
Read the outlook →Retail and distribution outlook
Resident-led demand, electronic payments, paid membership, retail media, Egypt’s prices and e-invoicing.
Read the outlook →Public sector outlook
Agentic AI in government, published citizen-experience scores, single front doors and fewer steps.
Read the outlook →Healthcare outlook
Saudi health clusters, virtual care at scale, UAE health records, Egypt’s insurance rollout and supervised AI.
Read the outlook →Education outlook
National admissions platforms, AI in the curriculum, Dubai’s private-sector growth and cross-border recruitment.
Read the outlook →Manufacturing outlook
Supply routes, local content rules, Saudi factory growth, Egypt’s exports and service on the installed base.
Read the outlook →Talk to the people behind this outlook
To discuss what it means for your organization, contact us directly.
Planning for 2026-27?
Talk to the people delivering Salesforce, Sitecore and Agentforce in Dubai, Riyadh, Jeddah, Doha and Cairo.
Sources and method
Arcsen is a Salesforce Summit Partner and Sitecore partner with teams in Dubai, Riyadh, Jeddah, Doha and Cairo. This outlook uses official statistics, regulator and government publications, company filings and established research, checked on 25 October 2026. Where a figure comes from a news report of official data, the source below names both. We update this page as new data is published.
- 2026 Middle East Automotive Consumer Study, Deloitte Middle East, 2026.
- Registrations or sales of new vehicles, all types, 2025, OICA, April 2026.
- Sales of Chinese cars pick up speed in the GCC, AGBI, October 2025.
- UAE races ahead as Middle East’s biggest EV market (citing IEA Global EV Outlook 2026), Khaleej Times, 24 May 2026.
- UAEV advancing electric mobility with tariff implementation and smart EV charging solutions, UAEV, via Zawya, 19 December 2024.
- EVIQ to install 5,000 fast EV chargers by 2030, Sharikat Mubasher, 9 January 2024.
- Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Middle East celebrates groundbreaking milestone, Hyundai Motor Group, 15 May 2025.
- Saudi’s Ceer unveils first EVs in push to become autos hub, Semafor, 22 September 2026.
- PIF-backed Lucid says preparing for 2027 production ramp in Saudi Arabia, Zawya, 6 August 2026.
- Auto sales were up 69.9% in 2025 but imports outpaced locally assembled vehicles, EnterpriseAM, 5 February 2026.
- Egypt targets 100,000 vehicles annually under automotive development program, Fast Company Middle East, 21 January 2026.