AI85% of Saudi retail payments are now electronic, and half of talabat’s gross merchandise value comes from members of its paid talabat pro programme. The 2026 conflict cut tourist footfall across the Gulf, while resident spending and digital channels held up. Retailers who plan 2026-27 around their own customer data will be best placed for the rebound the IMF expects in 2027.
of Saudi retail payments were electronic in 2025, up from 79% in 2024.
SAMA, 2026of talabat’s gross merchandise value came from talabat pro members in Q2 2026.
talabat, 2026active e-commerce registrations in Saudi Arabia at the end of Q2 2026, up 23% in a year.
Ministry of Commerce data, via Sharikat Mubasherannual urban inflation in Egypt in September 2026, down from 15.2% in March.
CAPMAS data, via ReutersIn brief
The four things to know before you plan.
- Electronic payments made up 85% of Saudi retail payments in 2025 (SAMA), and active e-commerce registrations rose 23% to 48,497 by mid-2026.
- talabat pro members generated 51% of talabat’s gross merchandise value in Q2 2026, and more than one in four active customers subscribe.
- Dubai received 6.97 million international overnight visitors in January to August 2026, while Emaar’s malls stayed about 98% occupied.
- Saudi e-invoicing reached businesses with VAT-able revenue above SAR 375,000, which had to connect to ZATCA’s Fatoora platform by 30 June 2026.
The market, country by country
| Market | Demand signal | Digital signal | What to watch in 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 48,497 active e-commerce registrations (Q2 2026, +23%) | 85% of retail payments electronic (2025) | E-invoicing integration waves; consent enforcement under the PDPL |
| United Arab Emirates | Dubai: 6.97m international visitors (Jan to Aug 2026); Emaar malls ~98% occupied (H1 2026) | talabat GCC gross merchandise value +5% (Q2 2026) | Return of tourist demand as shipping and air capacity recover |
| Egypt | Urban inflation 13.9% (September 2026) | talabat markets outside the GCC +41% (Q2 2026) | Price-sensitive demand and instalment payments |
Sources: SAMA; Ministry of Commerce data via Sharikat Mubasher; Department of Economy and Tourism data via Gulf News; Emaar; talabat; CAPMAS via Reuters; ZATCA.
Six shifts to plan for
What is changing in the market, with the evidence for each shift.
3.1Residents carry 2026
Dubai received 6.97 million international overnight visitors in the first eight months of 2026, and hotel occupancy in August was 66% (Department of Economy and Tourism data, via Gulf News). Emaar’s malls stayed about 98% occupied while tenant sales moderated. Plan for residents first and treat tourist demand as upside until the recovery the IMF expects in 2027.
3.2Every sale leaves a data trail
With 85% of Saudi retail payments electronic and e-commerce registrations up 23% in a year, almost every transaction is recorded somewhere. For most retailers the gap is joining payment, order and loyalty data into one profile per customer.
3.3Membership is the new loyalty
talabat pro members account for 51% of the platform’s gross merchandise value, and more than one in four active customers subscribe (talabat, Q2 2026). Loyalty systems need to manage subscriptions, benefit use and early churn signals alongside points.
3.4Everyday categories fund retail media
Grocery and retail reached 32% of talabat’s gross merchandise value in Q4 2025, up from 27% a year earlier, and advertising revenue reached 3.4% of GMV in Q2 2026. Consented first-party data is turning into a revenue line.
3.5Egypt grows, at a price
Egypt’s urban inflation eased to 13.9% in September 2026, and talabat’s markets outside the GCC, which include Egypt, grew 41% in Q2 2026. Offers targeted with CRM data and instalment options suit this market.
3.6Compliance runs through systems
Saudi Arabia’s e-invoicing integration reached its 24th wave: businesses with VAT-able revenue above SAR 375,000 had to connect to ZATCA’s Fatoora platform by 30 June 2026. Order, invoice and customer data have to agree across every channel.
Three ways 2027 could go
One base case from published forecasts, and what to do if it runs slower or faster.
The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook assumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz starts to reopen in March 2027, with shipping broadly back to normal by October 2027, and projects strong 2027 growth after a 2026 contraction (Saudi Arabia +7.9%, UAE +7.7%).
Lean on residents and members: retention offers, subscription benefits and service quality protect revenue while tourist footfall stays low.
Have tourist-facing ranges, staffing and campaigns ready, with stock and order data joined across channels.
Dates to watch
- Quarterlytalabat results: GCC gross merchandise value, membership share and retail media revenue.
- Mar 2027IMF baseline assumption for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to start reopening.
- MonthlyEgypt’s urban inflation, published by CAPMAS.
- QuarterlySaudi e-commerce registrations from the Ministry of Commerce business bulletin.
Where to start
Where Arcsen would start, and the page that explains each one.
One customer profile
Data 360 joins point-of-sale, e-commerce, app and loyalty data into one profile per customer.
Marketing Cloud & Data 360 →Membership and loyalty
Loyalty Management for tiers, subscriptions and partner benefits, measured on repeat visits and basket size.
Retail at Arcsen →Service through peaks and disruption
Service Cloud and Agentforce for order status, stock and returns in Arabic and English, with human handover.
Agentforce →Distributor visibility
Sales Cloud and Consumer Goods Cloud for orders, credit status and route-to-market reporting.
Sales & Revenue Cloud →Priorities for the next 12 months
- Rebuild 2026-27 forecasts around resident demand, with tourism as upside.
- Join payment, order and loyalty data into one profile per customer.
- Review paid-membership economics: sign-ups, benefit use and churn.
- Put AI agents on order status, stock and returns questions, with human handover.
- Check that e-invoicing and consent records are ready for audit.
- 16Pages
- 9Chapters
- 10Sources
Take the outlook into your planning meeting.
The same research as this page, designed as 16 landscape pages with charts, a 2026-27 timeline and a priorities checklist. Free to download and share with your team.
Questions leaders ask
How much of Saudi retail spending is electronic?
SAMA reports that electronic payments made up 85% of total retail payments in Saudi Arabia in 2025, up from 79% in 2024, with 14.6 billion electronic transactions.
How did the 2026 conflict affect Gulf retail?
Tourist footfall fell: Dubai received 6.97 million international overnight visitors in January to August 2026 and hotel occupancy was 66% in August. Resident demand held better, with Emaar’s malls about 98% occupied and talabat’s GCC gross merchandise value up 5% in Q2 2026.
Is paid membership working for retailers in the region?
On talabat it is: talabat pro members generated 51% of gross merchandise value in Q2 2026, and more than one in four active customers subscribe.
What is ZATCA’s 24th e-invoicing wave?
It covers taxpayers whose VAT-able revenue exceeded SAR 375,000 in 2022, 2023 or 2024. They had to connect their e-invoicing systems to ZATCA’s Fatoora platform by 30 June 2026.
What is the inflation picture for retailers in Egypt?
Egypt’s annual urban inflation was 13.9% in September 2026, down from 14.5% in August and 15.2% in March, according to CAPMAS data reported by Reuters.
Other outlooks for 2026-27
Eight more sectors, researched and sourced the same way.
Financial services outlook
Slower bank growth and tighter funding, open banking licensed in Saudi Arabia, real-time payments and fintech competition.
Read the outlook →Insurance outlook
Premiums growing faster than profits, risk-based capital from January 2027, consolidation and rising health costs.
Read the outlook →Travel and transportation outlook
Recovery after the 2026 disruption, Saudi domestic travel, new airlines and rail, biometrics and AI.
Read the outlook →Public sector outlook
Agentic AI in government, published citizen-experience scores, single front doors and fewer steps.
Read the outlook →Healthcare outlook
Saudi health clusters, virtual care at scale, UAE health records, Egypt’s insurance rollout and supervised AI.
Read the outlook →Education outlook
National admissions platforms, AI in the curriculum, Dubai’s private-sector growth and cross-border recruitment.
Read the outlook →Automotive outlook
Deferred demand, weak brand loyalty, Chinese brands, aftersales, EV charging and new Saudi plants.
Read the outlook →Manufacturing outlook
Supply routes, local content rules, Saudi factory growth, Egypt’s exports and service on the installed base.
Read the outlook →Talk to the people behind this outlook
To discuss what it means for your organization, contact us directly.
Planning for 2026-27?
Talk to the people delivering Salesforce, Sitecore and Agentforce in Dubai, Riyadh, Jeddah, Doha and Cairo.
Sources and method
Arcsen is a Salesforce Summit Partner and Sitecore partner with teams in Dubai, Riyadh, Jeddah, Doha and Cairo. This outlook uses official statistics, regulator and government publications, company filings and established research, checked on 25 October 2026. Where a figure comes from a news report of official data, the source below names both. We update this page as new data is published.
- E-Payments Account for 85% of Total Retail Payments in 2025, SAMA, 12 April 2026.
- talabat delivers strong results for Q2 2026 and raises full-year guidance, talabat Holding (DFM filing), 12 August 2026.
- talabat reports resilient results for Q4 2025, talabat Holding, 13 February 2026.
- E-commerce, logistics registers in Saudi Arabia rise by over 20% in Q2-26, Sharikat Mubasher, 12 July 2026.
- Dubai visitor numbers hit highest level since February with 869,000 arrivals, Gulf News, 14 September 2026.
- Emaar’s net profit before tax increased by 23% to AED 12.8bln, Emaar Properties, via Zawya, 7 August 2026.
- Egypt’s annual urban inflation eases to 13.9% in September, Reuters, via Zawya, 12 October 2026.
- talabat posts strong 2025 growth, plans $100m investment, Gulf Business, 13 February 2026.
- ZATCA announces the 24th wave of e-invoicing integration, ZATCA, 26 September 2025.
- World Economic Outlook, October 2026, IMF, 13 October 2026.